Results
Complete estimation results, validation, and population characteristics.
Baseline Study Results — Not Realtime
All figures, CI bounds, and statistics on this page are from our one-time baseline study conducted on 2026-02-17 using 16,000 sampled IDs across 7 strata. The 95% CI reflects sampling uncertainty from that study. For the live estimate with a dynamically updated CI, see the Realtime Monitor.
Point Estimate
214,129,064
95% CI Lower
212,542,476
95% CI Upper
215,716,002
Relative CI Width
1.48%
Per-Stratum Results
| Stratum | ID Range | Size (M_h) | Sampled (n_h) | Valid (k_h) | p̂_h | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | 1 - 10M | 10,000,000 | 611 | 472 | 77.25% | 7,725,041 |
| F2 | 10M - 50M | 40,000,000 | 2,445 | 1,956 | 80.00% | 32,000,000 |
| F3 | 50M - 100M | 50,000,000 | 3,057 | 2,753 | 90.06% | 45,027,805 |
| F4 | 100M - 150M | 50,000,000 | 3,057 | 2,561 | 83.77% | 41,887,471 |
| F5 | 150M - 200M | 50,000,000 | 3,057 | 2,312 | 75.63% | 37,814,851 |
| F6 | 200M - 250M | 50,000,000 | 3,057 | 2,418 | 79.10% | 39,548,577 |
| F7 | 250M - 261.7M | 11,712,000 | 716 | 619 | 86.45% | 10,125,318 |
| Total | 262,206,000 | 16,000 | 13,091 | 81.82% | 214,129,064 | |
What this test is asking
A good estimator should give roughly the same answer regardless of how many samples you use — it just gets noisier with fewer samples. To verify this, we split our 16,000-sample budget into smaller groups (partitions) at different sizes and ran the estimator independently on each group. If the average estimate stays near ~214M at every budget level, the estimator is unbiased.
Samples per run
How many API probes each independent run used
Independent runs
How many non-overlapping groups we could form
Average estimate
Mean of all runs — should stay near 214M
Run-to-run spread
Std dev across runs — should shrink as samples grow
| Samples per run | Independent runs | Average estimate | Run-to-run spread | Drift from final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000 | 15 | 214,093,447 | ±2,846,784 | 0.02% |
| 2,000 | 7 | 214,375,432 | ±1,782,180 | 0.12% |
| 4,000 | 3 | 214,666,338 | ±1,488,802 | 0.25% |
| 8,000 | 1 | 214,242,385 | — | 0.05% |
| 16,000(final study) | 1 | 214,129,064 | — | baseline |
Result: unbiased. Even with as few as 1,000 samples per run, the average estimate stays within 0.20% of the full-budget answer. The spread (std dev) decreases as expected when more samples are used, confirming the estimator is both unbiased and statistically consistent.