Research Dashboard · Stratified Sampling · Updated Daily

How Many Real GitHub Users Actually Exist?

We used stratified random sampling across GitHub's full numeric ID space to estimate the true population — with a 95% confidence interval.

Our estimate, as of May 20, 2026

95% confidence [212.5M – 215.7M]

16,000Random Samples

81.8%Validity Rate

7ID Strata

95%Confidence

286,395,847Frontier ID

Key Metrics

Valid Users

~235.5M

95% CI: [212.5M – 215.7M]

Validity Rate

81.8%

13,091 of 16,000 sampled

User / Org Split

95.81%

4.19% organizations

Frontier ID

286.4M

As of May 20, 2026

Frontier & Estimate Trend

Updated daily via GitHub Actions

Growth Projections

~265,418 IDs/day | 81.8% validity

Now

~235.5M

Frontier

286.4M

30 Days

+2.3%

~240.8M

+5.4M users

Frontier: ~294.4M

90 Days

+7.8%

~253.9M

+18.4M users

Frontier: ~310.3M

1 Year

+33.2%

~313.6M

+78.1M users

Frontier: ~383.3M

Linear extrapolation assuming constant ID allocation rate and fixed validity rates from baseline study. Updated daily via GitHub Actions.

Explore the Research

Methodology24K API calls

How we built the estimator — stratified sampling, strata design, bootstrap CI, and unbiasedness proofs.

Results16K samples

Interactive charts, per-stratum breakdowns, partition analysis, and unbiasedness verification.

Realtime MonitorLIVE

Live GitHub ID frontier tracking via binary search. Watch new accounts appear in real time.

Full ReportPDF

The complete PDF research report — statistical methods, validation figures, and full analysis.